Pit & Quarry, November 2016

SENATE PASSES WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT ACT he U S Senate passed the Water Resources Development Act WRDA by a vote of 95 3 reports the National Stone Sand Gravel Association NSSGA T According to NSSGA the 106 billion Senate bill includes money for water infrastructure projects across the country as well as authorization for more than 20 port levee and dam projects It also includes 220 million for aid to communities affected by high levels of lead in water The U S House of Representatives still has to pass the bill as of press time The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee passed a slimmer bill earlier this year without funding for lead treatment or many of the other project authorizations The Senate version includes many projects not included in the House version and is significantly larger NSSGA reports AGGREGATE FORECAST By David Chereb Expect continued small gains into 2017 T he economy and construction are both gaining slowly After hopes of much higher growth for the second half of 2016 both measures are instead looking like more of the same slow growth We have used almost free money for more than six years to stimulate growth And it has worked just not as much as anticipated The debate for economists and policymakers is More of the same or something else Because the something else involves structural reforms in public versus private stimulus and higher productivity gains the United States will mainly stick with easy money with modest reforms It is unlikely there is overwhelming UPDATE support for a multiyear period of re adjustments that will be painful for some For construction materials it means continued small gains into early 2017 as prior increases in construction contracts continue to push material volumes higher But we are running out of demand in the private sector If enacted the Water Resources Development Act would provide money for U S water infrastructure projects NSSGA adds that several House members have indicated the Senate bill will be contested in the House because up to eight different House members have jurisdiction over projects included in the Senate version The House and Senate must reconcile differences between the two versions in order to create a final bill for approval High home prices and lack of down payment funds are beginning to put a ceiling on new home sales Modest employment gains and changing shopping habits the Amazon effect mean nonresidential vacancy rates will not decline enough to spur increases in nonresidential volumes for Dr David Chereb has many years of experience forecasting construction materials and his webbased forecasting models have captured every major turning point in materials demand for more than 15 years Chereb received his Ph D in economics from the University of Southern California He can be reached at david chereb@ sc marketanalytics com the next few years Solid gains in public finances are supporting higher infrastructure spending but are now in competition with higher pension and healthcare demands for public employees On balance infrastructure spending is near a plateau for the next few years Both presidential candidates have pledged to support more infrastructure spending and if they follow through it will begin to help this segment after 2018 DCG Inc U S Aggregate Forecast billions of metric tons 2012 2013 2014 2015est 2016est 2017est 2018est RESIDENTIAL 43 39 48 53 58 54 50 NONRESIDENTIAL 68 60 65 70 73 72 70 NONBUILDING 91 106 106 105 106 108 102 TOTAL 202 205 219 228 237 234 222 Yr Yr Ch 20 15 68 41 39 13 51 52 PIT QUARRY November 2016 pitandquarry com ISTOCK COM ART WAGER Note There is a small difference between DCG estimates of consumption and the USGS because of DCG estimates in states where USGS does not report values owing to competitive concerns Also SC Market Analytics has revised the segment estimates based on revised internal data