Pit & Quarry, December 2014

Producers NSSGA ask EPA to withdraw rule proposal T he National Stone Sand Gravel Association NSSGA urged the U S Environmental Protection Agency EPA and U S Army Corps of Engineers to reconsider its proposal to radically expand the scope of federal authority over water and land uses across the United States According to NSSGA aggregate producers argue that the policy change is unjustifiable and the cost to the American taxpayer and industry would far outweigh any benefit At a time when Americans are concerned about our crumbling infrastructure it is unbelievable that the EPA seeks to make an unwarranted rule change that dramatically impacts the cost of aggregates and the products that they go into like highways roads and bridges says Paul Detwiler III NSSGA chairman and president of New Enterprise Stone Lime Ultimately these increased costs are borne by the taxpayers yet there is little if any benefit from the rule In its final comments on the rule NSSGA says the federal governments attempt to seek authority over areas that have little or no connection to flowing streams and rivers is confusing and unnecessary The proposed rule is so sweeping that vast areas of the American landscape including areas that are dry most of the year would come under the agencies new authority says Mike Johnson NSSGA president and CEO Expanding the definition of a navigable waterway to include dry stream beds and areas that may not even be wet simply makes no sense Johnson says EPAs analysis shows that the rule expands federal jurisdiction from 35 million river and stream miles to more than 8 million miles According to NSSGA it is not alone in this fight The U S Small Business Administration state and local governments and other trade associations representing a number of industries and interests are asking for the rule to be withdrawn NSSGA adds AGGREGATES FORECAST Demand shifting to other areas The outlook has changed very little from last month Solid increases are expected this year with moderate increases next year The demand is shifting from residential to nonbuilding with nonresidential providing consistent growth across both years Although the gains in residential volume between 2011 and 2014 are impressive they dont feel great due to the very low starting point Remember in 2005 residential demand was almost 1 billion tons so the near 100 percent increase between 2011 and 2014 only gets us up to 06 billion tons still 37 percent below 2005 volume Residential demand will be flat for the next few years due to higher home prices a lower median income slow household formation rates strict mortgage rules and Upcoming Events ISEE Conference on Explosives Blasting Technique Feb 1 4 2015 New Orleans AED Summit Condex Feb 10 13 2015 Orlando Fla Pit Quarry Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony March 15 2015 Baltimore AGG1 Aggregates Academy Expo March 17 19 2015 Baltimore DCG Inc U S Aggregates Forecast billions of metric tons 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014est 2015est RESIDENTIAL 031 034 049 062 061 060 NON RESIDENTIAL 048 054 056 052 059 062 NON BUILDING 120 110 098 091 10 107 TOTAL 199 198 203 205 220 229 Yr Yr Ch 25 05 25 10 73 41 the exit of many investor groups from large bulk purchases That leaves us with normal organic growth which is tepid due to mediocre gross domestic product growth Nonresidential is improving as modest employment gains lower vacancy rates and improved financing create returns that justify adding new square feet Nonresidential will provide solid volume gains over the next two years Nonbuilding is also recovering as government revenue at all levels is increasing Most of the gains in nonbuilding will come from local and state financed projects because the federal government remains too divided to implement any new stimulus Combined this means another two years of modest gains from most areas with energy and low cost areas providing the bulk of the gains David Chereb Dr David Chereb has many years of experience forecasting construction materials and his web based forecasting models have captured every major turning point in materials demand for more than 15 years Chereb received his Ph D in economics from the University of Southern California He can be reached at david chereb@ sc marketanalytics com 6 PIT QUARRY December 2014 www pitandquarry com